银行业本周聚焦：11月社融信贷数据，居民中长期贷款连续两个月同比多增

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the new credit data for November shows a year-on-year increase in medium to long-term loans for residents for two consecutive months, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market and consumer confidence [3][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Focus of the Week - The new social financing data for November shows a growth rate of 7.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Excluding government bonds, the growth rate is 6.1%, also down by 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The total new social financing in November was 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion yuan. The breakdown includes an increase of 522.3 billion yuan in loans to the real economy, a net increase of 242.8 billion yuan in corporate bond financing, and a net increase of 92 billion yuan in trust loans [2][3]. 2. Credit and Deposit Growth - In November, new RMB loans amounted to 580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion yuan. Corporate loans increased by 250 billion yuan, while personal loans increased by 270 billion yuan [3]. - By the end of November, RMB deposits reached 303.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. The increase in deposits for November was 2.17 trillion yuan, a decrease of 360 billion yuan compared to the previous year [3]. 3. Monetary Supply Situation - The growth rates for M0, M1, and M2 in November were 12.7%, -3.7%, and 7.1%, respectively, with M2-M1 spread narrowing to 10.8% [4]. 4. New Loan Interest Rates - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans in November was approximately 3.45%, down 2 basis points from the previous month and 36 basis points from the same period last year. The interest rate for new personal housing loans was about 3.08%, down 7 basis points month-on-month and 92 basis points year-on-year [5]. 5. Debt Replacement Plans - The issuance plan for replacing existing hidden debts has been largely completed, with a total proposed issuance scale of 2 trillion yuan across 29 provinces and regions. Jiangsu province has the highest issuance scale at 251.1 billion yuan [6][12]. 6. Sectoral Insights - The report notes that the recent counter-cyclical adjustment policies are expected to alleviate credit risk pressures in the banking sector. It suggests focusing on banks like Ningbo Bank, Changshu Bank, and China Merchants Bank as preferred investments [13].