有色金属行业周报（20241209-20241213）：库存、成本端支撑，金属价格有望偏强运行

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Core Views - The report indicates that the speed of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is controllable, and the supply and demand for alumina are both decreasing, suggesting that short-term prices are likely to fluctuate [1][5]. - Copper inventory continues to decrease, further supporting copper prices, with expectations of strong fluctuations in copper metal prices [1][5]. Summary by Sections Aluminum Industry - As of December 12, 2024, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory is reported at 557,000 tons, with a slight increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week. Year-on-year, the inventory has decreased by 7,000 tons [1]. - The report anticipates that the overall aluminum ingot inventory in December will be around 600,000 tons. The alumina supply side is experiencing a reduction in operating rates due to environmental policies and maintenance [1]. - The report suggests that the short-term alumina market is unlikely to see significant oversupply, with traders still willing to support prices despite high alumina prices and cautious downstream purchasing behavior [1]. Copper Industry - The report notes that as of December 12, 2024, domestic electrolytic copper inventory is at 108,200 tons, with global visible inventory at 467,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - The report emphasizes that the low annual copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) and the ongoing reduction in copper inventory are expected to support copper prices in the near term [1]. Lithium and Minor Metals - The report highlights a slight decline in lithium carbonate prices, while lithium ore prices remain firm. The total inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased slightly, with manufacturers actively producing to meet annual targets [6]. - The report mentions that Hunan Silver's subsidiary, Baoshan Mining, has obtained a new mining license, significantly increasing its production capacity from 450,000 tons/year to 1,000,000 tons/year, which is expected to enhance profitability and self-sufficiency in raw materials [6]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and positive macro expectations in the base metals sector, including Shenhuo Co., Tianshan Aluminum, Nanshan Aluminum, Zijin Mining, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining [5].