财政取向积极

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [1]. Core Insights - The report expresses optimism about the recovery of the domestic economy in the coming year, driven by a shift towards more expansive fiscal and monetary policies [4]. - The steel industry is currently at a cyclical low in profitability, with significant sunk costs making capital exit difficult [4]. - There is a potential for recovery in the industry, with several companies identified as undervalued [4]. Supply Analysis - Daily average pig iron production has continued to decline, with a decrease of 0.1 million tons to 2.324 million tons [18]. - The capacity utilization rate for 247 domestic steel mills remains steady at 87.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5 percentage points [18]. - The weekly production of five major steel products is 8.607 million tons, down 0.1% week-on-week and down 5.4% year-on-year [18]. Inventory Analysis - Total steel inventory has decreased by 1.8% week-on-week, with a more significant decline compared to the previous week [27]. - The weekly social inventory of five major steel products stands at 7.761 million tons, down 0.9% week-on-week and down 10.6% year-on-year [27]. - Steel mill inventory has also decreased, with a total of 3.630 million tons, down 3.7% week-on-week and down 15.6% year-on-year [28]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has improved, with a week-on-week increase of 0.8% to 8.817 million tons [38]. - Rebar demand has shown a notable improvement, with weekly apparent consumption at 2.377 million tons, up 4.4% week-on-week [38]. - The weekly average transaction volume for construction steel is 115,000 tons, reflecting a 1.5% increase from the previous week [39]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have strengthened, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $107.1 per ton, up 3.6% week-on-week [47]. - Australian iron ore shipments have decreased by 6.3% week-on-week, while Brazilian shipments have dropped by 30.2% [47]. - Port iron ore inventory has slightly decreased, indicating a potential tightening in supply [47]. Price and Profitability - Steel prices have shown a slight upward trend, with immediate gross margins slightly declining [15]. - The profitability ratio of 247 steel mills has decreased to 48.0%, down 1.7 percentage points week-on-week [15].