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第十批集采:降价幅度较大但上市药企影响有限,腾笼换鸟方向不改
交银国际·2024-12-15 08:15

Industry Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the pharmaceutical industry, indicating an attractive outlook compared to the benchmark index [1]. Core Insights - The results of the tenth batch of centralized procurement were announced, with significant price reductions but limited impact on listed pharmaceutical companies. The procurement will be implemented starting April 2025, involving 62 successful products from 234 companies, with an average of over 6 companies winning bids per product [1][2]. - The report highlights that the impact on the overall revenue of covered prescription drug companies is expected to be limited, with the most significant pressure on Shiyao's Doxorubicin Liposome Injection, which will see a 97% price drop, potentially affecting revenue by 1 to 1.5 billion RMB [2]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of "tenglong huan niao" (replacing old with new), which continues to favor the inclusion of innovative drugs in the medical insurance system, allowing for cost savings for patients and freeing up funds for new drug support [2]. Summary by Sections Procurement Results - The tenth batch of centralized procurement involved 439 companies and 778 products, with an average of 12.5 companies per product, marking the highest participation in history [1]. - The average price reduction across the successful products is significant, with the highest reduction reaching 97% for certain drugs [2]. Company Impact - The report notes that for most covered prescription drug companies, the impact on revenue from the procurement is expected to be minimal, except for specific products like Doxorubicin Liposome Injection [2]. - The report provides a detailed valuation summary for various companies, with several rated as "Buy" and a few as "Neutral" [3]. Valuation Overview - The report includes a valuation table for various pharmaceutical companies, indicating target prices and expected returns, with several companies showing significant potential upside [3][13].