策略周专题（2024年12月第2期）：“春季躁动”何时开启？

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a slight decline this week, with major indices showing mixed results; the CSI 500 saw a small increase while the STAR 50 and ChiNext indices faced larger declines[1] - As of December 13, 2024, the PE (TTM) valuation percentiles for the ChiNext and small-cap 100 indices are relatively low, both below 40%[1] Policy Impact - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12 emphasized a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing the fiscal deficit ratio, and maintaining liquidity through potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions[2] - The market is expected to gradually price in the economic fundamentals and corporate earnings for the coming year due to active trading and supportive policies[2] Spring Rally Expectations - Historically, A-shares have seen a "spring rally" almost every year, often catalyzed by adjustments in monetary policy, key economic data releases, and significant meetings[3] - The upcoming Spring Festival in 2025 is earlier than in 2024, suggesting that the "spring rally" may also commence earlier, as seen in previous years[3] Sector Performance - During the "spring rally" periods from 2012 to 2024 (excluding 2022), sectors such as non-ferrous metals, computers, and electrical equipment have shown strong performance, with average price changes of 24.7%, 24.2%, and 22.8% respectively[42] - The TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors also performed well during these periods, with average price changes of 22.5% and 21.7% respectively[41] Market Sentiment and Risks - The market is likely to oscillate between growth and balanced styles, influenced by ongoing policy support and the influx of capital due to positive market sentiment[4] - Key risks include the potential ineffectiveness of historical patterns, slower-than-expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and significant economic growth shortfalls[4]