金融数据速评：发行即置换，化债=扩张

Group 1: Credit and Loan Trends - In November, new credit increased by 580 billion RMB, a significant year-on-year decrease of 510 billion RMB[1] - New corporate loans in November were only 250 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 572.1 billion RMB, widening the gap by nearly 200 billion RMB compared to October[1] - Household loans in November amounted to 270 billion RMB, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 22.5 billion RMB[1] Group 2: Social Financing and Debt Replacement - New social financing in November was 2.3 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion RMB[1] - The issuance of replacement bonds has not significantly boosted social financing due to a high base from last year's issuance of 1 trillion RMB in government bonds[1] - The stock of social financing remained stable at 7.8% year-on-year, slightly above expectations by 0.2 percentage points[1] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The monetary policy is shifting back to a "moderately loose" direction, with expectations for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2025[1] - The forecast for loan growth in 2025 is expected to decline further, with social financing slightly retreating under government debt financing support[1] - The overall credit financing demand is expected to contract, lacking momentum for a trend reversal[1]