11月金融数据：化债政策加持金融数据

Group 1: Credit and Social Financing - In November, new RMB loans increased by 580 billion, lower than the market expectation of 900 billion, and a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion, with a stock growth rate of 7.7%[1] - Social financing increased by 2.3 trillion in November, below the market expectation of 2.9 trillion, with a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion, maintaining a month-end growth rate of 7.8%[2] - The main drag on social financing was loans, while the largest positive contributions came from government and corporate bonds[5] Group 2: Monetary Aggregates - M2 growth rate slightly declined to 7.1% in November, down from 7.5%, with total RMB deposits increasing by 2.2 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 360 billion[6] - M1 growth rate improved to -3.7%, up from -6.1%, exceeding market expectations, primarily due to the utilization of fiscal funds[6] - Non-bank deposits were a core drag, decreasing by 1.4 trillion year-on-year, mainly influenced by a cooling stock market[6] Group 3: Policy Outlook - The December Politburo meeting set a policy tone of "moderate easing" for 2025, with a potential additional reserve requirement ratio cut expected due to the issuance of 2 trillion in special bonds[7] - It is anticipated that there will be a total of over 100 basis points (BP) in reserve requirement cuts and more than 30 BP in interest rate cuts in 2025[7] - Risks include the potential for a second wave of inflation in the U.S., which could complicate monetary policy decisions in China[8]