地产行业2025年年度策略报告：止跌回稳，价值回归

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the real estate industry [3] Core Views - The real estate market in 2024 experienced a "first decline, then stabilization" trend, with policies effectively addressing key issues such as high inventory and weak demand [4] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that the market is poised for stabilization, with a focus on "reserve purchases + interest rate cuts" as key drivers [4] - The path to stabilization is expected to follow a "quality products + core areas" approach, with core cities and high-quality products likely to stabilize first [5] - Nationwide investment and sales are expected to remain under pressure in 2025, with neutral assumptions predicting a 7.5% decline in investment and a 6.5% decline in sales [5] Market Review - In 2024, the national real estate market was under pressure, with key indicators such as real estate development investment, new home sales, and new construction starts all declining significantly [24] - The second-hand housing market saw a continuous increase in listings, which added supply to the market and diverted demand from new homes [4] - Policies introduced after the "4.30" Politburo meeting, such as lowering down payments and canceling mortgage rate floors, helped reduce homebuying costs and brought incremental demand through government reserve purchases [4] Outlook for 2025 - The stabilization of the market is expected to follow a path where high-quality products in core cities stabilize first, followed by a broader national recovery [5] - Key factors to watch include the effectiveness of "reserve purchases + interest rate cuts" in driving market stabilization [4] - The report highlights that the actual mortgage rate still has room to decline, and the rental yield is already higher than the 10-year government bond yield, which could further support market recovery [4][90] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with light historical burdens and strong land acquisition capabilities, such as China Resources Land, Yuexiu Property, and China Overseas Land & Investment [6] - Companies with valuation recovery potential, such as Vanke A, Gemdale Group, and Seazen Holdings, are also highlighted [8] - Additionally, the report suggests paying attention to leading companies in brokerage (e.g., Beike), property management (e.g., China Overseas Property, Poly Property Services), and construction management (e.g., Greentown Management Holdings) [8] Key Data and Trends - In 2024, national real estate development investment fell by 10.3%, new home sales by 15.8%, and new construction starts by 22.6% [24] - The second-hand housing price index in 70 major cities has been declining for 33 consecutive months, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [24] - The rental yield in 100 cities has surpassed the 10-year government bond yield, indicating improved attractiveness of rental returns [90]