食品饮料行业周报：扩内需下重视大众品成长性，白酒分化中持续磨底

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage sector, indicating an expected increase in the industry exceeding the market by more than 15% in the next 3-6 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence within the liquor sector, emphasizing that the market currently prioritizes short-term realities over long-term expectations. It suggests that business demand recovery is a necessary outcome of policy transmission to enterprises, while mass consumption upgrades are relatively delayed [1][11]. - The report anticipates that the liquor industry will continue to experience a bottoming phase in 2025, with a focus on the performance of high-end and regional liquor brands as potential investment opportunities [1][11]. - The snack food segment is expected to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival stocking season, with companies that have a high proportion of gift boxes likely to see increased sales [12]. - The restaurant chain sector is projected to experience valuation recovery driven by policy support and seasonal effects, with a recommendation to focus on companies that have shown internal improvements [12]. - The soft drink market is noted for its potential recovery in consumption scenarios, with strong leading brands expected to benefit from improved competition dynamics [12]. - The dairy product sector is anticipated to see supply-demand improvements driven by policy changes and a bottoming out of raw milk prices, leading to expected profit elasticity [12]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The report indicates that the liquor sector is currently in a phase of internal differentiation, with high-end and next-high-end liquor experiencing weak demand, while regional brands are expected to perform better due to their strong market foundations [11]. - It notes that the overall market perception is that 2025 will be a year of waiting for the liquor industry's recovery, with current price adjustments reflecting a significant de-leveraging process that has been ongoing since 2021 [11][25]. - The report recommends focusing on high-end liquor brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as regional leaders like Gujing Gongjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu [1][11]. Snack Food Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of the Spring Festival stocking season, predicting a sales peak in late December, with companies like Qiaqia Food and Yanjinpuzi expected to benefit from this trend [12]. Restaurant Chain Sector - The report highlights that short-term policy support and holiday effects are likely to aid in the recovery of the restaurant chain sector, with companies like Qingdao Beer and Anjijia Food recommended for their potential valuation recovery [12]. Soft Drink Sector - The report suggests that the soft drink market is in a seasonal downturn but is expected to benefit from improved competition and the potential for a second growth curve, recommending brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [12]. Dairy Product Sector - The report indicates that the dairy sector is entering a stocking season, with improvements in terminal sales expected, and recommends focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and profit margin improvement potential [12][30].