2024年中央经济工作会议点评：汇率依旧要稳，海南自贸港与人工智能

Economic Outlook - The main goal of economic and social development for 2024 is expected to be achieved smoothly, despite facing challenges[6] - The phrase "extraordinary" has been removed, indicating a commitment to stable policy[7] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is set to become more proactive, with an expected increase in the deficit ratio to over 3.5% in 2025 and special government bonds issuance rising to between 1.5 to 2 trillion yuan[8] - Local government debt risk mitigation was not mentioned in the 2024 meeting, suggesting improved conditions[8] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is shifting to a moderately loose stance, with expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[9] - The meeting emphasized maintaining basic stability of the exchange rate, despite discussions of potential depreciation in response to U.S. tariffs[9] Consumer Spending - The focus on boosting consumption has shifted from expanding the middle-income group to increasing income and reducing burdens for low- and middle-income groups[10] - Measures include raising basic pensions and expanding the scope of trade-in programs for consumer goods[10] Investment and Infrastructure - Increased support for "two重" projects and early planning for "十五五" major projects are expected to enhance infrastructure investment growth[12] - The construction of Hainan Free Trade Port is accelerating, with expectations for closure in 2025[13] Real Estate Risks - New changes in real estate risk management include stabilizing prices and addressing existing housing stock, with a focus on meeting demand[14] Artificial Intelligence - The emphasis on artificial intelligence as a key sector for enhancing new productivity has been highlighted, with initiatives to promote "AI+" across various industries[15]