中共中央政治局召开会议分析研究2025年经济工作；债市大幅走强

Economic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau emphasized a more proactive macro policy to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate and stock markets, aiming for a sustainable economic recovery[3] - The meeting highlighted the need for "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments," marking a historical shift from passive to proactive policy responses[3] - The proposal for "moderately loose monetary policy" is the first mention since 2014, indicating potential for significant interest rate cuts in the coming year[3] Inflation and Price Trends - November CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 2.5%, with expectations of a 2.7% decline, indicating a narrowing of the deflationary trend[4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in domestic industrial demand[5] Bond Market Developments - The bond market saw a significant rally, with the 10-year government bond yield hitting a record low of 1.9050%, down 5.00 basis points[17] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 471 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 138 billion yuan[12] International Market Trends - U.S. Treasury yields rose across all maturities, with the 10-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 4.20%[28] - Major European economies showed mixed results, with Germany's 10-year yield up by 1 basis point to 2.12% while others remained unchanged[31] Corporate Bond Market Activity - Shimao Group's shareholder announced the freezing of 265 million shares, representing 7.0645% of the total share capital, due to a financial dispute[21] - Country Garden received disciplinary measures from stock exchanges for failing to timely disclose its 2023 annual report[22] Convertible Bond Market Performance - The convertible bond market outperformed the equity market, with major indices rising by 0.12% to 0.15% on December 9[25] - The total trading volume in the convertible bond market was 712.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 57.65 billion yuan from the previous trading day[25]