策略专题研究：美股的水位

Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 13, 2024, the US stock market has led global markets with a cumulative increase of 26.3%, driven more by valuation than earnings, contributing 16.3% and 8.6% respectively [3][14]. - The S&P 500 index has risen by 26.7%, with the Communication Services sector leading at 43.4%, followed by Information Technology at 37.6%, and Consumer Discretionary at 35.0%, largely benefiting from the AI industry wave [3][17]. Group 2: Earnings Stability - In Q3 2024, the S&P 500 EPS growth was 5.9%, a decline from Q2's 11.4%, but still above the 10-year median of 4.4% [4][22]. - The growth in EPS was primarily driven by the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and healthcare sectors, with Communication Services at 23.2% and Healthcare at 13.6% [24][28]. Group 3: Valuation Levels - As of December 13, 2024, the S&P 500 PE (FY1) ratio was 25.4, significantly above the 10-year median of 19, indicating a high valuation level [5][34]. - Most sectors are trading above their historical averages, with Information Technology, Consumer Staples, and Healthcare showing particularly high valuation percentiles [37][41]. Group 4: Market Concentration - The US stock market's share of global market capitalization reached 50.8% as of early December 2024, nearing the pre-2002 high of 51.3% [46][47]. - The top ten companies in the US stock market accounted for 36.8% of the total market capitalization, reflecting a high concentration level [52][56].