宏观量化经济指数周报20241215：地产政策见效，“提前还贷”降温

ECI Index Overview - As of December 15, 2024, the ECI supply index is at 50.56%, unchanged from last week; the demand index is at 49.91%, down 0.01% from last week[1] - The investment index is at 49.99%, down 0.02%; the consumption index is at 49.50%, up 0.02%; the export index is at 50.49%, down 0.02%[1] - The ECI supply index increased by 0.05% compared to November, while the demand index rose by 0.02%[2] Economic Recovery Insights - The economic recovery is ongoing, but its sustainability remains uncertain; short-term incremental stimulus policies are unlikely[2] - The central economic work conference indicates that macroeconomic policy will strengthen significantly in the coming year[2] - Consumer demand for passenger vehicles showed signs of recovery, with retail sales in early December increasing by 32.0% year-on-year[2] ELI Index and Loan Dynamics - The ELI index is at -1.24%, up 0.02% from last week; new RMB loans in November totaled 580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion yuan[3] - The "debt reduction" initiative has led to a significant increase in government bond financing, with new issuance of 1.31 trillion yuan, up 158.9 billion yuan year-on-year[3] - Non-financial corporate deposits increased by 740 billion yuan in November, indicating a shift of liquidity from the government to enterprises[3] Real Estate and Consumer Loans - New loans to the residential sector amounted to 270 billion yuan in November, down 22.5 billion yuan year-on-year; long-term loans related to real estate increased by 300 billion yuan, up 66.9 billion yuan year-on-year[4] - The demand for early mortgage repayments has cooled, reflecting the effectiveness of recent real estate policies[4] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans fell to 3.45%, down 36 basis points year-on-year; the rate for new personal housing loans is approximately 3.08%, down 92 basis points year-on-year[4]