海外市场周报：准备迎接鹰派降息

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed performance last week, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.3%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell by 0.6% and 1.8% respectively[3] - In Europe, the German DAX increased by 0.1%, while the UK FTSE 100 and French CAC40 declined by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively[3] - The Asia-Pacific region saw the South Korean Composite Index leading with a 2.7% increase, while indices like the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index also rose, but the VN30 and Taiwan Weighted Index experienced slight declines[3] Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - The US CPI for November rose by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations[4] - The PPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the previous value by 0.6 percentage points and surpassing economists' predictions of 2.6%[4] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on December 18 have surged to over 97% probability, indicating a likely "hawkish cut" due to persistent inflation concerns[4] Future Projections - If the Fed successfully implements a 25 basis point cut, the total reduction in this cycle will reach 100 basis points, potentially leading to a rebound in inflation expectations[5] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to rise to around 4.5-4.6% as inflation trading becomes more prominent, with the dollar index expected to strengthen again[5] - Post-rate cut, the overall pace of future cuts is anticipated to slow, with potential risks for the US stock market due to valuation impacts and liquidity constraints[5] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions that could lead to market volatility[6]