农林牧渔行业研究：生猪出栏均重上行，关注旺季消费情况

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintain Rating) [3] Core Views - The agricultural sector is showing signs of recovery, with the pig farming segment expected to see improved profitability in Q4 due to increased demand and seasonal factors [4][70]. - The planting industry is facing price adjustments for crops like corn and soybeans, but the commercialization of genetically modified seeds is anticipated to drive growth for leading seed companies [5][71]. - The poultry farming sector is currently experiencing price weakness, but a recovery in consumer demand is expected to enhance profitability in the near future [6][72]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Pig Farming - As of December 13, the national commodity pig price was 15.75 yuan/kg, down 2.96% week-on-week; the price for 15 kg piglets was 458 yuan/head, a decrease of 12 yuan/head from the previous week [4][70]. - The average weight of pigs slaughtered this week was 129.52 kg/head, an increase of 1.49 kg from last week [4][70]. - The profit from purchasing piglets was -95.65 yuan/head, a decrease of 48.55% week-on-week, while self-breeding profits were 132.52 yuan/head, down 39.79% week-on-week [4][70]. - The demand for pigs is expected to rise before the winter solstice, leading to a potential rebound in prices before the New Year [4][70]. - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [4][70]. 1.2 Planting Industry Chain - Grain prices are adjusting downward, with corn prices under pressure; however, leading companies are performing well due to superior seed varieties [5][71]. - The commercialization of genetically modified seeds is progressing, which may lead to higher sales premiums compared to traditional seeds [5][71]. - Companies to focus on include Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Denghai Seeds [5][71]. 1.3 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens was 7.53 yuan/kg, down 0.26% week-on-week; the price for dressed chickens was 14.25 yuan/kg, up 0.35% week-on-week [6][72]. - The profit from parent breeding chickens was 0.98 yuan/bird, down 28.99% week-on-week, while broiler profits were at breakeven [6][72]. - The supply of breeding chickens is increasing, but potential import restrictions due to avian influenza could tighten supply and raise prices [6][72]. - Companies to monitor include Sanquan Foods, Yisheng Livestock, and Minhe Livestock [6][72].