当前估值可能抬升及盈利能验证的方向

Group 1 - The report indicates that the overall market valuation has increased significantly, with the total A-share index rising by 36.2% since September 24, driven by liquidity and valuation contributions [1][2] - The adjusted TTM P/E ratio for the total A-share market has rebounded to 1.3, suggesting that current valuations are not cheap, as the median P/B ratio has also quickly returned to near zero [2][3] - The report highlights a valuation divergence across different market segments, with the CSI 300 index's TTM P/E at 12.66, which is at the 62.0% historical percentile over the past five years, indicating strong recovery expectations for the economy [3][4] Group 2 - The report notes that the valuation of large-cap stocks is above the historical average, with P/E and P/B ratios at 60% historical percentiles, while mid-cap stocks are closer to the historical median [3][4] - The influx of active funds since September 24 has contributed to the valuation divergence, with retail and private funds favoring small-cap and technology stocks over fundamental-driven investments [4][5] - The report suggests that future market growth may depend on either earnings growth to absorb current valuations or a continued upward shift in valuation levels, with a focus on sectors that can deliver earnings [5][9] Group 3 - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in sectors such as AI, new energy, and domestic technology, which are expected to benefit from industry catalysts and have significant future growth potential [9][10] - It also emphasizes the importance of monitoring sectors that can realize earnings, including industrial automation and service consumption, as well as those benefiting from fiscal improvements [10] - The report highlights that the decline in the ten-year treasury yield may provide valuation uplift opportunities for dividend-paying assets like banks and utilities [10]