宏观量化经济指数周报：地产政策见效，“提前还贷”降温

ECI Index Overview - As of December 15, 2024, the ECI supply index is at 50.56%, unchanged from last week; the demand index is at 49.91%, down 0.01% from last week[1] - The investment index is at 49.99%, down 0.02%; the consumption index is at 49.50%, up 0.02%; the export index is at 50.49%, down 0.02%[1] - The ECI supply index increased by 0.05% compared to November, while the demand index rose by 0.02%[2] ELI Index and Loan Dynamics - The ELI index is at -1.24%, up 0.02% from last week[3] - In November 2024, new RMB loans totaled 580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion yuan; social financing new loans were 522.3 billion yuan, down 589.7 billion yuan year-on-year[3] - The government bond financing increased by 1.31 trillion yuan in November, up 158.9 billion yuan year-on-year, partially offsetting the decrease in loans[3] Real Estate and Consumer Behavior - New loans to the residential sector in November were 270 billion yuan, down 22.5 billion yuan year-on-year; long-term loans related to real estate increased by 300 billion yuan, up 66.9 billion yuan year-on-year[4] - The demand for early mortgage repayment has cooled, indicating the effectiveness of real estate policies[4] Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The central economic work conference confirmed a monetary policy of "moderate easing," suggesting continued financial conditions will remain loose[4] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans fell to 3.45%, down 36 basis points year-on-year; the rate for new personal housing loans is approximately 3.08%, down 92 basis points year-on-year[4] Export and Shipping Trends - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose to 2384.40 points, up 127.94 points week-on-week; the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) increased to 1486.06 points, up 20.90 points[5] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of December was 12.40%, a significant increase of 30.30 percentage points from November[5]