招商银行：抓住复苏机遇，收获超额收益

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A/Buy-H" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the investment logic for bank stocks will shift from dividend logic to recovery logic by 2025, with companies like China Merchants Bank (CMB) being sensitive to economic recovery [13][36] - The report highlights several key factors driving the positive outlook for CMB, including a rebound in consumer demand, improved deposit dynamics, a favorable capital market environment, and resilient non-interest income [14][37][201] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the significant changes in the domestic and international policy and economic environment since Q3 2024, indicating a positive shift in policy direction and the potential for economic recovery [36][171] Value Banking: Profitability Across Cycles - CMB has maintained a leading position in return on equity (ROE) among peers, benefiting from a strong retail banking focus and effective risk management [72][117] - The bank's low-cost funding and high-quality non-interest income contribute to its robust profitability [72][117] Economic Recovery and CMB's Potential for Excess Returns - The report anticipates a recovery in retail demand and credit growth as economic policies take effect, particularly in key regions like the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta [37][173] - CMB's deposit structure is expected to improve, with a projected increase in the proportion of demand deposits, positively impacting net interest margins [14][195] - The capital market is expected to recover, leading to a rebound in wealth management income, which is a significant contributor to CMB's revenue [201][202] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts a net profit growth of 0.32% and 1.95% for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 5.65 and 5.76 CNY [231] - The report maintains a target price of 55.63 CNY for A-shares and 54.91 HKD for H-shares, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to current market prices [231][232]