Hiecise(300809) 光大证券·2024-12-15 12:30Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - The company successfully won the bid for the "High-Precision P0-Level Grinding Machine Project" at Nanjing University of Science and Technology, marking a significant step in its layout in the ball screw field [1] - The project involves the procurement of high-precision grinding machines for industrial machinery, humanoid robots, and precision grinding research [1] - The company's recent advancements in the ball screw field are accelerating, with products like the sub-μ high-end composite grinding series and precision thread grinding machines achieving international standards [3] - The company has signed equipment sales contracts with Lishui Vocational and Technical College and domestic harmonic reducer companies, enhancing its capabilities in ball screw and linear guide rail production [3] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 336 million yuan in 2022 to 758 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 20.93% [4] - Net profit is projected to increase from 47 million yuan in 2022 to 190 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 35.33% [4] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.19 yuan in 2022 to 0.75 yuan in 2026 [4] - ROE (Diluted) is expected to improve from 3.22% in 2022 to 9.89% in 2026 [4] Market Data - Current stock price: 32.59 yuan [7] - Total market capitalization: 8.263 billion yuan [8] - 1-year stock price range: 17.65 yuan to 35.15 yuan [8] - 3-month turnover rate: 180.43% [8] Profitability and Valuation - Gross margin is expected to increase from 33.3% in 2022 to 40.8% in 2026 [9] - EBITDA margin is projected to rise from 21.5% in 2022 to 35.0% in 2026 [9] - P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 174 in 2022 to 44 in 2026 [9] - P/B ratio is expected to decline from 5.6 in 2022 to 4.3 in 2026 [9] Industry and Company Positioning - The company is a leader in high-end CNC roll grinding machines, with self-developed CNC systems [3] - It is positioning itself for high-end equipment localization, targeting the replacement of imported products [3] - The company's products are used in industrial machinery, robotics, aerospace, and precision instruments [3]