海外策略双周报：美债利率为何强势反弹？

Core Insights - The report indicates a mixed performance in global assets, with inflation slightly rising, expectations for a rate cut in December increasing, but expectations for cuts next year cooling. US stocks showed divergence, US Treasury yields and the dollar rose, while oil prices increased due to potential escalations in US sanctions against Russia [3][4][5] Economic Indicators - November CPI and PPI both showed slight increases, with the core CPI year-on-year at 3.3% and month-on-month at 0.3%, remaining stable compared to previous values. The core goods prices rebounded, primarily supported by new and used car prices, while core services showed stability due to a slowdown in rent growth [5][21][22] US Treasury Yields - The report explains the strong rebound in US Treasury yields, primarily driven by an increase in term premiums. As of December 12, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 18 basis points, with the term premium increasing by nearly 11 basis points. This rise is attributed to heightened re-inflation risks, fluctuations in Trump-related policies, and year-end liquidity constraints [12][13][16] Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan Meetings - The upcoming meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are highlighted, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed and potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. The Fed is anticipated to signal a slower pace of rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan is expected to continue its tightening policy due to improving inflation and wage conditions [16][17] Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations influenced by overseas disturbances and domestic policy expectations, with a slight increase in market sentiment. The Hang Seng Index and related indices showed gains, particularly in non-essential consumer goods, telecommunications, and industrial sectors, while healthcare and real estate sectors lagged [9][10][30] Capital Flows - There was an increase in southbound capital inflows, primarily directed towards the financial and telecommunications sectors, while foreign capital continued to flow out of the Hong Kong market. The net inflow of southbound funds reached HKD 211 billion, up from HKD 183 billion the previous week [10][30]