医药行业周报：AI技术与制药结合，降本增效前景好

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [2]. Core Insights - High risk, long cycles, and high costs are core pain points in drug development, with a global success rate of 51.0% in drug discovery and 12.9% in clinical phases. The drug discovery process typically takes 7 to 10 years and involves investments of $600 million to $800 million, while clinical trials can take 6 to 12 years and may require billions in spending [4][16]. - The development of AI technology, particularly generative AI, significantly impacts target discovery, with various models like GANs and VAEs showing effectiveness in improving drug properties and creating complex molecular structures. Since 2017, AI-driven drug discovery companies have seen exponential growth in their drug pipelines, reaching about 50% of the pipelines of the top 20 global pharmaceutical companies by 2021 [4][5][28]. Summary by Sections 1. AI Technology and Pharmaceutical Integration - The integration of AI technology in drug development is expected to reduce time and cost significantly, enhancing the effectiveness of drug research. Continuous investment in AI R&D by companies such as HengRui Medicine and WuXi AppTec is recommended [5][34]. 2. Market Performance Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector index fell by 0.9% from December 9 to December 13, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.1%. Year-to-date, the sector index has decreased by 8.7%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 23.3% [35][46]. - The top-performing stocks during this period included KaiKai Industrial (up 33.75%), Dezheng Health (up 32.38%), and Renmin Tongtai (up 26.46%) [49]. 3. Investment Strategy and Portfolio - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: undervalued blue-chip stocks, companies with positive short-term changes and low price-to-book ratios, fundamentally solid enterprises, and those with high growth expectations for H2 2024. Sub-sectors of interest include innovative drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, raw materials, and certain medical devices [6][35].