电力行业周报：关注电价前置，煤价破八百后的超额机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electricity sector [6]. Core Views - The report highlights the opportunity for excess returns as coal prices drop below 800 RMB/ton, reaching their lowest point of the year. The average price for Q4 2023 is 847 RMB/ton, down 124 RMB/ton year-on-year, while the average for the year to date is 865 RMB/ton, down 81 RMB/ton from last year. The warm winter has reduced coal demand, and with domestic production remaining high and sufficient imports, the supply-demand balance is loose, leading to a lackluster peak season for coal prices. The market's expectations for electricity prices are already well established, with long-term contract prices set to be implemented in 2025, and regional electricity price risks have largely been cleared. The report suggests that after coal prices drop below 800 RMB, there will be a release of cost elasticity, particularly in the thermal power sector, which is expected to continue into next year [4][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Views - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring electricity price pre-positioning and the opportunities arising from coal prices falling below 800 RMB. It notes that the current coal price has reached its lowest point of the year at 800 RMB/ton, with a significant year-on-year decline in average prices. The report also discusses the impact of warm winter temperatures on coal demand and the high levels of domestic production and imports, leading to a soft supply-demand balance [4][17]. - The National Energy Administration has announced the second batch of rural energy revolution pilot projects, with eight counties selected. The policy aims to promote the local development and utilization of renewable energy, targeting a 30% share of renewable energy in total primary energy consumption by 2025 in these pilot counties [5][17]. - Various regions are advancing the "Wind Control Action," accelerating the construction of distributed wind power projects. For instance, Yunnan Province has initiated 31 projects with a total installed capacity of 535,300 kW [5][17]. - The National Energy Administration is set to issue a management approach for distributed photovoltaic power generation, aiming to further standardize the development and management of distributed photovoltaic projects [5][17]. Market Review - The report provides a market review for the week of December 9-13, noting that the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.36%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 1.01%. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 2925.31, down 0.18%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.83 percentage points [3][60]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the thermal power sector, particularly after coal prices drop below 800 RMB, which is expected to release cost elasticity and create investment opportunities. It also suggests paying attention to regions with tight electricity supply-demand dynamics and low electricity price risks. Additionally, it highlights the potential for renewable energy to realize environmental premiums, particularly in wind power investments [4][10].