社会服务行业双周报（第96期）：首发经济、冰雪经济、银发经济将成为扩大内需新兴力量

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social service sector, indicating that it is expected to perform better than the market average [5][54]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the "First Release Economy," "Ice and Snow Economy," and "Silver Economy" are emerging forces to expand domestic demand, as emphasized in the Central Economic Work Conference [2][21]. - The "First Release Economy" focuses on the debut of new technologies, products, services, and business models, reflecting a trend towards consumption upgrades and high-quality development [22][23]. - The "Ice and Snow Economy" has seen significant growth, with the industry scale reaching 890 billion yuan in 2023, a 70% increase from 2019, and is expected to continue expanding [3][24]. - The "Silver Economy" targets the elderly demographic, offering products and services tailored to their needs, with government support aimed at fostering this sector [4][25]. Summary by Sections First Release Economy - The "First Release Economy" encompasses the launch of new products and services, emphasizing innovation and regional economic vitality. It aims to stimulate consumer demand and avoid product homogenization [22][23]. - The Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce policies to promote the First Release Economy, including financial incentives for high-quality stores and businesses [23]. Ice and Snow Economy - The Ice and Snow Economy is positioned as a new growth market, particularly in winter and spring tourism, with a projected industry scale of 1.2 trillion yuan by 2027 and 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030 [3][24]. - The report notes that the previous winter season saw over 385 million participants in ice and snow activities, with expectations to exceed 500 million in the upcoming season [24]. Silver Economy - The Silver Economy includes a range of activities aimed at the elderly, from health products to travel services, with a focus on enhancing the quality of life for seniors [4][25][28]. - The report anticipates a surge in demand for travel services tailored to older adults, particularly as this demographic seeks to avoid peak travel times [28]. Sector Performance - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with an increase of 8.68% from December 2 to December 14, 2024, significantly exceeding the 0.42% rise of the CSI 300 index during the same period [30][34]. - Notable stocks in the sector included Dalian Shengya and Xiaobing Xiaobing, which saw substantial gains [30][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Haidilao, Tongqinglou, and Ctrip Group, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies and market conditions [5][54].