钢铁行业周报：政策定调积极，关注原料端风险

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the steel sector, suggesting potential for upward rebound due to favorable policy adjustments and low institutional holdings in the sector [2][14]. Core Insights - The steel market experienced fluctuations, initially rising due to positive policy signals but later adjusting to seasonal demand factors. Daily average pig iron production decreased to 2.325 million tons, with steel production at 8.607 million tons, reflecting a slight week-on-week decline of 0.06% and a year-on-year drop of 5.44% [2][14]. - Steel consumption showed resilience, with a weekly consumption of 8.817 million tons, up 0.81% week-on-week but down 3.11% year-on-year. Notably, rebar consumption remained strong [2][14]. - Steel inventory decreased to 1,139.1 thousand tons, down 1.81% week-on-week and 12.25% year-on-year, indicating a significant reduction in both steel mill and social inventories [2][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the steel sector's potential for recovery, driven by policy support and a favorable market environment. It identifies five main investment themes, including companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, those with technological barriers, and firms positioned for market recovery [2][14][15]. 2. Weekly Review 2.1 Industry Performance - The steel sector outperformed the broader market, with a decline of 0.79% compared to a 1.01% drop in the CSI 300 index. The sector's PE ratio stands at 28.34, while the PB ratio is at 1.00, indicating mid-range valuation levels [18][19]. 2.2 Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the steel sector included Anyang Steel (+11.06%), Xianglou New Materials (+10.46%), and Shagang Group (+7.03%). Conversely, major decliners included Sangang Minmetals (-6.77%) and Maanshan Steel (-5.69%) [18][19]. 2.3 Commodity Prices - The report provides insights into commodity prices, including rebar, hot-rolled steel, coking coal, and iron ore, reflecting market trends and price movements over the reporting period [33][35][36][37]. 3. Recent Events 3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - The report highlights key macroeconomic developments, including China's central economic work conference, which emphasized proactive fiscal policies and measures to boost domestic demand. This is expected to positively impact the steel sector in the coming years [43][47]. 3.2 Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the supply and demand situation for iron ore and coking coal, noting fluctuations in production rates and inventory levels, which are critical for steel production [2][14].