建材行业2025年年度策略报告：弱现实与强预期，关注供给侧变化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the building materials industry [3][9]. Core Insights - The building materials sector has underperformed the market in 2024, with a significant correlation to the real estate sector. The report anticipates a continued decline in new housing sales area in 2025, with a projected year-on-year decrease of 6.5% [4][30]. - The report highlights the importance of supply-side changes and the potential for recovery in the industry, particularly in cement and consumer building materials, as policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to boost confidence in the supply chain [4][9]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The building materials sector has lagged behind the market, with a cumulative increase of only 0.8% as of December 6, 2024, compared to a 15.8% increase in the CSI 300 index [25]. - The report notes that the performance of the building materials sector is closely tied to the real estate market, with significant policy-driven rebounds observed in 2024 [27][28]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment continues to face pressure, with widespread declines in performance expected in 2024. However, the report suggests that the reduction in impairment pressure may lead to long-term growth potential [5][43]. - Companies like Beixin Materials and Tubaobao are highlighted for their resilience and potential for growth despite the overall market challenges [5][43]. Cement Industry - The cement sector is expected to see positive supply-side changes, with multiple rounds of price increases anticipated in 2024. The report predicts an upward shift in the profitability center for the cement industry in 2025 [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side coordination among leading companies to maintain price stability and improve profitability [6][9]. Glass Industry - The photovoltaic glass segment is projected to recover profitability, although the cost curve remains steep. The report indicates that while the price of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, a recovery is expected as inventory levels decrease [7][9]. - The float glass market is experiencing price declines, but signs of a bottoming out are emerging, with limited upward potential in the near term [7][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the building materials sector, particularly those with strong performance in challenging conditions. Recommended stocks include Conch Cement, Weixing New Materials, and Arrow Home [9][11].