能源周观点：地缘政治影响下油价短期偏强，中期仍偏空

Oil Market Insights - Short-term oil prices are expected to remain strong, while medium-term outlook is bearish, primarily influenced by geopolitical factors in the Middle East[1] - As of December 13, 2024, Brent crude futures are priced at $74.49 per barrel, up $3.37 from the previous week, while WTI futures are at $71.29 per barrel, up $4.09[1] - OPEC+ production quotas indicate an oversupply, with a projected production of 36.846 million barrels per day by December 2025, an increase of 1.234 million barrels per day year-on-year[1] Natural Gas Market Insights - TTF gas price on December 13, 2024, is $12.67 per MMBtu, down $1.70 from last week, while JKM remains stable at $15 per MMBtu, and HH increased by $0.20 to $3.28 per MMBtu[1] - U.S. natural gas production is recovering, with a potential increase of 60 million cubic meters per day expected in the next 1-2 months[1] - European gas consumption has increased by 29.09% year-on-year, reaching 1.571 billion cubic meters per day as of December 12, 2024[1] Coal Market Insights - Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is at 790 RMB per ton as of December 13, 2024, down 22 RMB from the previous week[1] - Domestic coal inventory remains high, with key power plants consuming 5.1 million tons per day, down 5.56% year-on-year[1] - China's raw coal production in October 2024 reached 414 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.93%[1] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected temperature changes, slower-than-expected economic growth, insufficient natural gas production cuts, geopolitical shifts, and data inaccuracies from third-party sources[1]