全球大类资产配置年度报告：2025年海外市场展望—水无定势，见可而进

Global Economic Overview - The US economy showed resilience in 2024 despite high interest rates, driven primarily by strong consumer spending, particularly from high-income households [7] - A positive feedback loop of "income-consumption-corporate profits-income" has formed, supporting continued economic growth in the US [7] - The US labor market remains tight, with wage growth outpacing inflation, boosting real incomes [41] 2025 US Economic Outlook - The baseline scenario for 2025 is a soft landing, reflation, and gradual rate cuts, with a policy mix of "loose fiscal + loose monetary" [8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in December 2024, followed by 2-3 more cuts in the first half of 2025, before pausing due to reflation risks [8] - Fiscal policy is expected to remain loose, but the extent of fiscal expansion may be limited, depending on the implementation of Trump's policies and spending cuts [8] Global Macro Themes - The rise of right-wing populism globally, particularly in the US and Europe, is expected to increase policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks [9] - Global central banks are expected to continue cutting rates, while the Bank of Japan may continue hiking, creating a divergence in global liquidity conditions [9] - AI innovation remains a key driver of global growth, with AI agents expected to see a surge in commercial applications in 2025 [10] Asset Allocation Recommendations - US equities are expected to remain strong, with a focus on the technology and cyclical sectors [10] - Japanese equities are expected to continue rising as the economy potentially exits deflation and enters a positive wage-inflation cycle [10] - The US dollar is expected to remain strong, while the yen and other non-US currencies may face depreciation pressures [10] US Consumer and Labor Market Dynamics - US consumer spending has been supported by strong wage growth and a resilient labor market, with the "golden age employment rate" at historical highs [41] - High-income households have been the primary drivers of post-pandemic retail spending, while lower-income households have seen more stable spending patterns [52] - The labor market remains tight, with a narrowing supply-demand gap, though wage growth is expected to slow [41] Global Political and Policy Risks - The rise of right-wing populism in the US and Europe is expected to increase policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks, particularly around trade and fiscal policy [85] - In Europe, the rise of right-wing parties in the European Parliament could lead to increased policy fragmentation and uncertainty [91] - In Asia, political uncertainty in Japan and South Korea could also weigh on regional stability and economic growth [92] Global Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates in 2025, but the pace of cuts may slow due to reflation risks and a resilient labor market [75] - The European Central Bank is expected to continue easing, though the recovery in Europe is likely to remain uneven, with manufacturing lagging behind services [98] - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue its path of monetary normalization, with further rate hikes possible [95]