Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Viewpoints - The polyurethane industry is expected to see marginal improvement in demand due to policy stimulus, with a recommendation to focus on industry leader Wanhua Chemical [2] Summary by Sections Price Spread - As of December 13, the aggregate MDI price is 18,300 CNY/ton, down 1.1% month-on-month, with a price spread against benzene of 11,793.6 CNY/ton, down 3.3% [11][2] - Pure MDI price is 18,600 CNY/ton, down 2.1% month-on-month, with a price spread against benzene of 12,093.6 CNY/ton, down 4.7% [11][2] - TDI price is 12,850 CNY/ton, up 0.8% month-on-month, with a price spread against toluene of 6,029.2 CNY/ton, down 2.5% [11][2] - Hard foam polyether price is 12,100 CNY/ton, unchanged month-on-month, while soft foam polyether price is 9,075 CNY/ton, down 0.8% [11][2] Supply - As of December 12, MDI operating rate is 61% with inventory at 77,000 tons; TDI operating rate is 69.58% with inventory at 2,300 tons [23][2] - In October, aggregate MDI export volume was 96,690 tons, up 1.9% month-on-month; pure MDI export volume was 7,810 tons, down 2.3%; TDI export volume was 37,660 tons, up 1.0% [23][2] Downstream Demand - In October, refrigerator production was 8.971 million units, up 8.4% year-on-year, with exports at 6.9 million units, up 22.6%; freezer production was 2.173 million units, up 5.9%, with exports at 666,300 units, up 23.0% [36][2] - Cumulative housing construction area was 7.21 billion square meters, down 12.4% year-on-year; new housing starts were 610 million square meters, down 22.7% year-on-year [36][2]
基础化工行业聚氨酯11月月报：淡季以来聚合MDI价差仍维持高位，冰箱冰柜产量、出口同比高增
Huafu Securities·2024-12-15 23:05