东吴证券：晨会纪要-20241216

Macro Strategy - The report anticipates a "moderate easing" of monetary policy in 2025, focusing on three main areas: maintaining reasonable liquidity, reducing financing costs for enterprises and residents, and enhancing the execution and transmission of interest rate policies [1][10][12] - It is expected that there will be 2-3 instances of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in 2025, totaling 100-150 basis points [1][10] - The policy interest rate may have a downward adjustment space of 30-40 basis points, with reforms in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) pricing mechanism allowing for greater reductions in loan rates [1][10] Central Economic Work Conference - The conference highlighted five key themes: pragmatism, coordination, intensity, specificity, and reform [2][12] - Pragmatism involves acknowledging current economic pressures and setting a realistic growth target of around 5% for the coming year [2][12] - Coordination emphasizes the importance of aligning fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on increasing government debt financing to support economic stability [2][12] - The intensity of macro policies is expected to increase significantly, with a shift from a long-standing prudent monetary policy to a more actively easing stance [2][12] - Specific measures include timely RRR and interest rate cuts, as well as increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and issuing special bonds [2][12] Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses the ongoing wave of mergers and acquisitions among commercial banks, driven by regulatory requirements and local government needs to mitigate financial risks [5][13][14] - The integration of smaller banks is expected to continue, with a focus on optimizing resource allocation and enhancing the overall resilience of the banking sector [5][13][14] - The impact of bank mergers on subordinated debt (二永债) credit spreads is analyzed, indicating that credit spreads may converge post-merger depending on the credit quality of the new entity [5][13][14] Insurance Industry - The implementation of the personal pension system is expected to enhance the long-term growth potential of the third pillar of retirement savings [6][15] - The report notes that the current market demand for savings remains strong, and insurance companies are likely to see a gradual alleviation of interest spread pressures [6][15] - The insurance sector is currently undervalued, with P/EV ratios ranging from 0.62 to 0.94, indicating a favorable investment outlook [6][15] Recommended Stocks - The report highlights CATL's (宁德时代) strategic partnership with Stellantis to establish a joint venture for lithium iron phosphate battery production, with a planned capacity of 50 GWh by the end of 2026 [7][19][20] - The profit forecasts for CATL have been revised upward, with expected net profits of 504 billion, 655 billion, and 801 billion yuan for 2024-2026, reflecting a growth of 14%, 30%, and 22% respectively [7][19][20] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for CATL, with a target price of 446 yuan based on its leading position in the global battery market [7][19][20]