开源证券：开源晨会-20241216

Core Insights - The report anticipates a "super-normal" counter-cyclical adjustment in macroeconomic policy for 2025, with a focus on expanding domestic demand through more proactive fiscal and monetary policies [6][7][22]. - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for a stable real estate market and the importance of boosting consumption as a primary goal for 2025 [21][25]. - The report highlights structural improvements in financial data, indicating a gradual recovery in credit demand and cash flow for both enterprises and households [13][19][37]. Macroeconomic Overview - The central government plans to implement more aggressive fiscal policies, including increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and issuing special long-term bonds to support economic growth [23][46]. - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated in early 2025 [24][52]. - The report notes that the focus on improving cash flow for local governments, enterprises, and households is a key policy driver [51]. Industry Insights - The real estate sector is under scrutiny, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing housing demand [8][25]. - The report suggests that consumer spending will be a major focus, with initiatives to enhance income for low-income groups and promote new consumption scenarios [8][27]. - The technology and green sectors are highlighted as areas of growth, with an emphasis on innovation and sustainable development [27][35]. Financial Data Analysis - November saw a significant increase in social financing, with a total increase of 23,357 billion yuan, although this was lower than expected [13][16]. - The report indicates a structural improvement in credit demand, particularly in long-term loans for households, reflecting a recovery in the housing market [39][41]. - Government bonds are identified as a major driver of social financing, with substantial issuance expected to continue [42][46]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as technology, consumer goods, and real estate, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies and market conditions [30][35]. - It suggests a cautious approach from institutional investors, who are currently more conservative compared to retail investors [31][34]. - The emphasis is placed on maintaining confidence in policy directions while being prepared for potential market fluctuations [34][36].