海外市场周观察：降息预期的微妙变化

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. November CPI year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates met market expectations but were higher than previous values, maintaining the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in December [1][23] - The PPI year-on-year growth rate was 3.0%, and the month-on-month growth rate was 0.4%, both exceeding previous values and expectations, indicating persistent inflation [1][24] - The labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims rising to 242,000 from 225,000, and continuing claims increasing to 1.886 million from 1.871 million [1][24] Group 2 - The report notes that the market has almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a 96% probability [1][25] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated that the current policy remains sufficiently restrictive, allowing for a gradual approach to future rate cuts [1][25] - The report highlights that the core CPI year-on-year growth rate was 3.3%, consistent with previous values, while the core goods month-on-month growth rate was 0.3%, up from 0.0% [1][24] Group 3 - The report tracks global major asset performance, with NYMEX light crude oil showing the largest increase at +5.84%, while LME three-month lead had the largest decline at -2.56% [1][42] - The report indicates mixed performance in global equity markets, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 2.73% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 1.82% [1][47] - In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar appreciated by 0.29% against the Chinese yuan, while the Japanese yen depreciated by 1.78% [1][55]