铜行业周报：11月冶炼厂库存环比-45%，铜管11月产量创2019年以来同期新高

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the copper industry, with specific recommendations for companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, and Jincheng Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4][5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic pressure is expected to weaken, and supply-demand dynamics are likely to support an upward trend in copper prices [6]. - The report highlights that the focus in the short term will be on the U.S. interest rate cuts, trade tensions, and the intensity of policy stimulus in China, with copper prices expected to fluctuate in the short term [1][4]. - The report anticipates that with tightening supply and improving demand, copper prices are expected to continue rising into 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Copper Prices and Stocks - As of December 13, 2024, SHFE copper price is 74,790 CNY/ton, up 0.1% week-on-week, while LME copper price is 9,057 USD/ton, down 0.4% week-on-week [1][23]. - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 6.1% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory increased by 1.1% [2][30]. 2. Supply Dynamics - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper is 942 CNY/ton, down 188 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][55]. - In October 2024, China's copper concentrate production was 148,000 tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year [2][55]. - Domestic port copper concentrate inventory reached 1.275 million tons, a 7.2% increase week-on-week, marking a high since records began in May 2022 [2][55]. 3. Demand Insights - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a decrease in operating rates by 4.1 percentage points [3][55]. - In November 2024, copper tube production increased by 11.5% month-on-month, reaching a record high since 2019, with the operating rate for copper tube enterprises rising by 9.2 percentage points [3][55]. 4. Futures Market - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 7.4% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 4.7% [4][40]. - As of December 10, 2024, COMEX non-commercial net long positions were 11,000 contracts, reflecting a cautious market sentiment towards short-term copper prices [4][40]. 5. Macroeconomic Factors - The probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December 2024 has risen to 99.6% [4][43]. - The U.S. November CPI was reported at 3.3%, with a core CPI of 2.7% [4][43].