特朗普上任前的“冷静期”

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. stock market has reached new highs, driven by self-reinforcing logic after fully pricing in Trump's policy paths[5] - The market is currently in a "calm period" before Trump's inauguration, with limited sensitivity to core economic data[5] - The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds has shown wide fluctuations, returning to levels close to those seen after Trump's election, primarily due to term premium recovery[5] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of November's non-farm payroll and CPI data, the market has almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December[7] - The Fed is expected to lean towards larger rate cuts to address uncertainties following Trump's presidency, with at least one rate cut anticipated in the next two meetings[11] - The Fed's dovish stance may lead to an overreaction in rate cuts, potentially causing a faster rebound in U.S. inflation[17] Group 3: Inflation Dynamics - Core CPI has remained sticky at a 0.3% month-on-month increase for four consecutive months, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[13] - The overall CPI has returned to its highest level since April, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending and retail activity[13] - The inflation outlook is complicated by uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies, including tariffs and immigration, which will become clearer post-inauguration[16]