轻工制造行业：政策强调促消费，看好内需子板块复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [4]. Core Views - The central economic work conference emphasizes boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, which is expected to benefit sectors like home furnishings and packaging [1][2]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, driven by government subsidies and a recovery in consumer demand [2]. - The paper industry is experiencing price increases for various paper types, indicating a potential improvement in profitability [3][52]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishings - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has driven sales exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with significant sales in automobiles and home appliances [2]. - The home furnishing sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in orders and performance, with key companies to watch including Oppein Home, Sophia, and Mousse [2]. - The report suggests a long-term upward trend for the industry, with short-term valuation recovery anticipated [2]. Paper and Packaging - Prices for various paper products have increased, with white cardboard at 4,230 yuan/ton and corrugated paper at 2,876.25 yuan/ton [3][52]. - The report notes that the paper industry has seen a cumulative revenue increase of 4.1% year-on-year for the first ten months of 2024 [69]. - Companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Sun Paper are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for profitability improvement [3]. Light Industry Consumption - The report identifies new consumption growth points in smart home products, cultural tourism, and sports events, driven by policy support [3]. - It recommends focusing on companies in the cultural and entertainment sectors, such as Morning Glory and Denka, which are expected to benefit from a recovering consumer environment [3]. Export Chain - Furniture exports saw a decline of 2.7% year-on-year in November, but the report anticipates stabilization in overseas trade due to supportive policies [6]. - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in cross-border e-commerce and those with strong operational momentum [6]. Cost Tracking - The report notes a slight increase in raw material prices, with TDI prices up by 0.6% and copper prices up by 1.3% [48].