运输行业交运周专题2024W50：国货航拟上市，对比视角看货运航司

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming IPO of Guohang Airlines, marking the entry of a second air cargo company into the A-share market. Guohang Airlines operates under a light-leverage model with a debt-to-asset ratio of less than 15% as of the first half of 2024, indicating a healthy asset structure [5][80]. - The report compares Guohang Airlines with Eastern Airlines Logistics, noting differences in financial performance, resource allocation, and operational efficiency. Guohang Airlines has a higher proportion of Asian routes and is actively enhancing its planning capabilities to improve cargo load factors [5][80]. - The air passenger market is recovering, with domestic flight volumes reaching 107% of 2019 levels and international passenger volumes at 92% of 2019 levels as of December 13 [6]. - In maritime transport, freight rates on the US routes have rebounded, while concerns about a second strike at East Coast ports have emerged [7]. - The logistics sector shows continuous improvement in freight volumes, with express delivery volumes increasing by 30.9% year-on-year [8]. Summary by Sections Guohang Airlines IPO - Guohang Airlines is set to become the second air cargo company listed in the A-share market, with a focus on enhancing its operational efficiency and expanding its cargo sources [5][80]. - The company plans to raise approximately 3.5 billion yuan, primarily for the acquisition of wide-body cargo aircraft and engines, as well as for improving logistics capabilities and digital infrastructure [85]. Air Passenger Market - Domestic flight volumes have recovered to 107% of 2019 levels, while international flight volumes are at 92% of 2019 levels. The domestic passenger load factor is 83.8%, slightly above 2019 levels [6]. - Ticket prices for domestic flights have decreased by 11.6% compared to 2019, indicating competitive pricing in the market [6]. Maritime Transport - The average freight rate for VLCCs has dropped by 23.6% to $16,000 per day due to a lack of cargo, while the SCFI index for US routes has increased by 5.7% [7]. - Concerns about potential strikes at East Coast ports could impact shipping operations and freight rates [7]. Logistics Sector - The express delivery sector has seen a significant increase in volume, with a year-on-year growth of 30.9% [8]. - The overall freight index for road transport has increased by 2.2% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in logistics activity [8].