社会服务行业·周观点：2025年春节档大片云集，电影大盘表现值得期待

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [6][75]. Core Viewpoints - The 2025 Spring Festival film season is anticipated to be strong, with a lineup of high-quality films expected to boost box office performance. The National Film Administration has initiated a "National Film Consumption Season," investing no less than 600 million yuan in viewing subsidies from December 2024 to February 2025, which will help stimulate market enthusiasm for viewing [2][3][43]. - The film market in 2024 is under pressure due to limited new film supply and market sentiment, but the capital market has already priced in the current situation. With an increase in quality film supply in 2025, viewing demand is expected to rise, supported by national policies promoting consumption [43][44]. Market Performance Review - The social services sector (Shenwan) index saw a weekly increase of 4.09%, ranking 4th out of 31 in the Shenwan first-level industry performance. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.36%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.73% [2][27]. - The sub-industry performance for the week showed significant gains in hotel and catering (12.71%), tourism and scenic spots (10.62%), and sports (8.51%) [28][30]. Individual Stock Performance - The top five performing stocks in the social services sector included Fengshang Culture (28.39%), Xi'an Catering (27.28%), and Qujiang Cultural Tourism (26.32%). Conversely, the bottom five performers were Guoyi Bidding (-12.55%) and Anche Detection (-9.80%) [30][31]. Investment Themes - Investment Theme One: Focus on the 2025 Spring Festival box office, which is expected to improve due to a strong lineup of films and supportive government policies [43][44]. - Investment Theme Two: Emphasize consumption recovery and new consumption models, with a strong commitment from the government to boost consumption and enhance investment efficiency [44][45]. Industry News Dynamics - The Ministry of Education has added 40 new vocational education programs, focusing on advanced manufacturing and digital industries, which will be available for enrollment in 2025 [60]. - The 2024 China Tourism Group Top 20 has been released, highlighting that over half of the listed tourism companies have increased investments this year, indicating a shift towards innovation-driven growth in the tourism sector [64].