国君研究|全行业周观点1216-1220

Economic Policy - The central government emphasizes "expanding domestic demand" as the top priority, setting a proactive tone for the upcoming economic meetings[5] - Fiscal policy aims to "increase the deficit rate" and issue special bonds, while monetary policy suggests "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts"[6] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize with continued efforts to support it, alongside potential new birth policies[9] Market Trends - The combination of a "strong dollar" and "low dollar interest rates" indicates investor confidence in the next U.S. government's execution capabilities, but this may face resistance over time[10][11] - The "China factor" is emerging as a new variable in the market, potentially replacing the current dynamics if the dollar's strength and interest rates are questioned[14] Investment Strategy - The downward trend of domestic risk-free interest rates is more certain compared to overseas, with expectations of continued capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks[20] - The issuance of special bonds is expected to slow in the first half of 2024, but if local debt approval powers are decentralized, the issuance pace may accelerate[25] IPO Market - The IPO market is anticipated to undergo reforms aimed at high-quality development, with new regulations expected to enhance listing standards and strengthen delisting requirements[29][30] - The expected issuance pace of new stocks in 2024 is at a historically low level, with a projected annual return of approximately 3.32% for A-class accounts[34] Sector Performance - The financial sector is expected to shift from a focus on dividends to recovery themes by 2025, with overall valuations anticipated to rise[38] - The energy sector is likely to benefit from improving demand and supply dynamics, particularly in the steel and new energy segments[46][48]