激浊扬清，周观军工第97期：从弱复苏迈向强复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the military industry [2] Core Insights - The military industry is transitioning from a weak recovery to a strong recovery, with expectations for a turnaround in 2025 driven by order issuance and inventory cycles [5][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of project execution and contract signing as key indicators of industry health, with a focus on the recovery of military equipment orders [36][58] Summary by Sections Section 1: Equipment Construction Mechanism - The execution of equipment ordering projects is a leading indicator of industry chain prosperity, with a focus on the annual plan and contract signing as the main themes [5][7] - The military's project execution is influenced by the approval of annual plans and the delivery of orders, which are critical for assessing market conditions [8] Section 2: Recovery Rhythm of the Military Sector - The military sector's recovery rhythm is contingent on order issuance and inventory cycles, with a potential reversal of difficulties expected in 2025 [32] - The report highlights that the military industry is currently at a low point, with revenue and profit growth rates declining significantly in 2024 compared to previous years [33][34] Section 3: Company Case Study - Tunan Co., Ltd. - Tunan Co., Ltd. is identified as a model enterprise that is innovating its supply chain business model, potentially leading to a new growth curve [63] - The company is focusing on the industrialization of alloy materials and aims to leverage its professional advantages in niche markets [64] Section 4: Looking Ahead to 2027 - The report suggests that patience is required as the industry approaches a fundamental turning point, with a focus on identifying specific segments that may outperform the average industry growth [12][13] - The military industry is characterized as a structural expansion opportunity, with a strategic focus on achieving the centenary goal of military development by 2027 [28][27] Section 5: Recent Developments in Orders - Recent announcements from companies like Zhimin Da and Hangcai indicate new orders that could act as catalysts for a strong recovery in the industry [53][56] - The report notes that December is typically a peak period for order announcements, but the number of orders in 2024 remains low compared to previous years [58][59]