可选消费行业双周报：财政补贴促进内需修复，出口短期韧性仍强

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the resilience of exports and the expected recovery in domestic demand, supported by fiscal subsidies and a favorable monetary policy environment [2][4] Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Macro Strategy - Domestic demand shows low CPI levels with a slight increase in credit, with November CPI rising by 0.2% year-on-year and core CPI by 0.3% [5][59] - Exports remain strong, with November exports increasing by 6.7% year-on-year, contributing positively to economic growth [6][62] - Valuation levels are relatively low, with a continuation of a loose monetary environment expected [7][67] - The report suggests a focus on fiscal subsidies and a balanced approach to overseas market expansion [8][75] 2. Light Industry Manufacturing - The report highlights the importance of domestic consumption and new tobacco products, with furniture exports declining by 2.7% in November [9][76] - Recommendations include focusing on the real estate chain and two-wheeled vehicles, which are expected to benefit from policy support [9][76] 3. Social Services - The report recommends prioritizing cyclical sectors, particularly hotels, restaurants, and tourism, with government consumption vouchers expected to stimulate demand [10][77] - Hotel RevPAR showed a slight improvement, indicating a recovery trend in the sector [10][77] 4. Textile and Apparel - The report notes an increase in retail data for certain clothing brands and strong export growth in textiles and garments [11][81] - It suggests focusing on high-end menswear and brands that can adapt to changing consumer trends [11][81] 5. Home Appliances - The report indicates that the "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 210 billion yuan in sales driven by this initiative [12][82] - Exports of home appliances showed a robust growth of 10% year-on-year in November [12][82] 6. Beauty and Personal Care - Online sales in the beauty sector have remained stable, with a 4.67% year-on-year increase in GMV across major platforms [13][86] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring gold prices and consumer demand during the upcoming festive season [13][86] 7. Trade and Retail - Tencent's video platform shows steady growth, with a 16.7% increase in DAU in November [14][87] - Meituan's delivery services have been impacted by warm weather, while consumption vouchers are expected to boost in-store dining [14][87]