2024年11月份金融数据点评：年末贷款增长拖累因素增多

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the banking industry [1] Core Views - Loan growth in November 2024 was lower than expected, with new RMB loans at 580 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion, mainly due to weak financing demand, debt replacement, and increased bad loan disposals [3] - Corporate loan growth slowed, with new corporate loans at 250 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 572.1 billion, while retail loans showed signs of recovery, with new retail loans at 270 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.5 billion [14][24] - Social financing (社融) in November increased by 2.34 trillion, with a growth rate of 7.8%, flat compared to October, driven by government bond issuance and direct financing [32][34] - M1 growth rebounded to -3.7%, while M2 growth slightly declined to 7.1%, with the M2-M1 spread narrowing to 10.8 percentage points [37][39] Loan Market Analysis - New RMB loans in November were 580 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion, below market expectations of 920.8 billion, primarily due to weak financing demand, local government debt replacement, and increased bad loan disposals [3] - Corporate loans in November increased by 250 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 572.1 billion, with short-term and medium-to-long-term loans decreasing by 18.05 billion and 23.6 billion respectively [14] - Retail loans in November increased by 270 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.5 billion, with short-term loans decreasing by 9.64 billion and medium-to-long-term loans increasing by 6.69 billion [24] Social Financing and Monetary Data - New social financing in November was 2.34 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion, with a growth rate of 7.8%, flat compared to October [32] - Government bond issuance contributed significantly, with new government bonds at 1.31 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 158.9 billion, accounting for 61% of new social financing [34] - M1 growth rebounded to -3.7%, while M2 growth slightly declined to 7.1%, with the M2-M1 spread narrowing to 10.8 percentage points [37][39] Corporate and Retail Loan Trends - Corporate loans in November increased by 250 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 572.1 billion, with short-term and medium-to-long-term loans decreasing by 18.05 billion and 23.6 billion respectively [14] - Retail loans in November increased by 270 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.5 billion, with short-term loans decreasing by 9.64 billion and medium-to-long-term loans increasing by 6.69 billion [24] - The report highlights that corporate loans remain the main driver of credit expansion, accounting for 81% of new loans from January to November [14] Future Outlook - The report expects loan growth to remain uncertain in December, with full-year new loans likely to be around 18 trillion, corresponding to a growth rate of 7.6%, down 3 percentage points from the beginning of the year [7] - The report anticipates that fiscal policy will play a stronger role in driving credit expansion in 2025, particularly in key areas such as infrastructure and government investment [15]