能源化工行业2025年年度策略报告：能源降价周期，静待底部反转

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the energy and chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook despite the current downturn in energy prices [4] Core Views - Traditional energy is still in a price decline cycle, with supply expected to increase slightly in 2025, while demand recovery remains uncertain, leading to a weak fundamental outlook and a potential further decline in price levels, though the year-on-year decline may narrow [4] - The coal market in 2024 saw a decline in both thermal and coking coal prices due to weak demand, with thermal coal prices expected to stabilize in 2025, while coking coal prices may see a marginal recovery as downstream steel and construction markets bottom out [5] - Crude oil prices are expected to face downward pressure in 2025 due to oversupply concerns, with OPEC+ potentially phasing out voluntary production cuts and increased production from the Americas, though strong support is expected around $60/barrel for Brent crude [6] Coal Market Analysis - Thermal coal prices in 2024 were under pressure due to weak demand from the power sector and high inventory levels, with prices expected to stabilize in 2025 due to supply-side support from long-term contracts and high transportation costs for coal from Xinjiang [5] - Coking coal prices in 2024 were driven down by weak demand from the steel and construction sectors, with a potential recovery in 2025 as macroeconomic policies take effect and downstream demand shows signs of improvement [5] - Coal supply in 2025 is expected to increase, particularly from Shanxi, with imports also likely to remain strong due to price advantages from countries like Australia and Mongolia [5] Crude Oil Market Analysis - Crude oil prices in 2024 were influenced by geopolitical risks and demand concerns, with prices expected to decline further in 2025 due to oversupply and weaker demand from major economies like China and the US [6] - OPEC+ may gradually phase out voluntary production cuts in the second half of 2025, leading to increased supply, while demand growth is expected to slow due to economic deceleration in Europe and the US, as well as the ongoing substitution of traditional energy by renewables [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation energy companies, particularly in the coal and oil sectors, as they offer stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [9] - Specific recommendations include coal companies like China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shanxi-based companies like Lu'an Environmental Energy, as well as oil and gas companies like PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC [9]