Economic Policy Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes a more proactive macro policy for 2025, aiming to expand domestic demand and stabilize the real estate and stock markets[4] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is expected to reach approximately 3.8%[14] - Monetary policy is shifting from "prudent" to "moderately loose," indicating increased operational space for monetary policy[14] Economic Indicators - November CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.5%, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared to October[7] - In November, the total import and export value reached $527.18 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with exports at $312.31 billion (up 6.7%) and imports at $214.87 billion (down 3.9%) resulting in a trade surplus of $97.44 billion[7] - M2 money supply grew by 7.1% year-on-year, while M1 decreased by 3.7%[11] Market Performance - Major A-share indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.36% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.73%[45] - Government bond futures saw increases, with the 2-year bond futures up 0.20% and the 10-year bond futures up 0.55%[45] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continued to decline, reaching 1051 points[38] Trade and Export Trends - November exports to ASEAN grew by 14.9%, while exports to the EU and the US increased by 7.2% and 8.0%, respectively[17] - The export scale for November was $312.31 billion, maintaining an upward trend despite a decrease in year-on-year growth rate due to a higher base effect from the previous year[17]
宏观周报：中央经济工作会议定调2025年 实施更加积极有为的宏观政策
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2024-12-16 03:40