美联储系列十四：预计美联储降息25BP，展望或“不鸽”

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2024, aligning with market expectations to avoid discrepancies[5] - The anticipated rate cut is driven by rising unemployment and instability in the U.S. economy, alongside high valuations in the stock market[5] - The market has priced in a 25 basis point rate cut as of December 14, 2024, reflecting economic uncertainties and liquidity pressures[5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.2% in November 2024, indicating increased uncertainty in the labor market[29] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 2024 was reported at 2.8%, slightly down from 3.0% in Q2 2024[29] - Core PCE inflation increased to 2.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.1%[29] Group 3: Market Conditions - Financial conditions are currently at a phase of relative looseness, with the Fed's interest rate having been reduced from 5.25-5.50% to 4.50-4.75%[16] - The ONRRP balance has decreased to approximately $596.2 billion, indicating tightening liquidity conditions despite the Fed's easing measures[21] - The yield curve has steepened, with the inversion between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields ending, suggesting a shift in market expectations[52] Group 4: Risks and Recommendations - There are risks associated with a lower-than-expected outlook for monetary easing in 2025, which could impact financial markets negatively[6] - The report suggests maintaining a long position in volatility (VIX) and a short position in the euro (EUR) under current risk scenarios[58] - Continued monitoring of commodity market adjustments is recommended, as short-term demand may be affected while long-term consumption expectations could rise[58]