有色金属2025年年度策略：右侧窗口期，铜铝、黄金仍是布局重点

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, with specific companies rated as "Buy" or "Increase" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The copper, aluminum, and gold sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment, with copper and aluminum expected to experience price increases due to rigid supply and stable demand [4][18]. - Gold is anticipated to have upward price potential driven by its monetary attributes and supportive monetary policies, particularly under the influence of Trump’s policies [4][6]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report emphasizes that the upward trend in copper, aluminum, and gold prices is expected to continue, suggesting a focus on these sectors during the economic policy acceleration phase in China [4][18]. Copper and Aluminum - Copper and aluminum prices are projected to remain in an upward channel due to supply constraints and robust demand, with copper prices expected to rise due to supply shortages and macroeconomic factors [5][19]. - The report notes that the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, with a projected net increase of approximately 300,000 tons in 2025 [44][45]. - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to benefit from the transition in energy structure and the growth of new industries, leading to a sustained increase in demand [5][19]. Gold - Gold prices are expected to rise due to inflation, geopolitical factors, and central bank purchases, with the valuation of gold stocks currently at historically low levels, indicating potential for recovery [6][19]. - The report suggests that the monetary characteristics of gold will dominate its price movements in 2025, supported by a favorable monetary policy environment [4][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, China Aluminum, and Shenhuo Co. for copper and aluminum investments, while suggesting attention to gold stocks like Shanjin International and Chifeng Jilong Gold [2][6].