家电行业2025年度投资策略：政策托底内需，出口中长期弹性可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the home appliance industry, including Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric [2][3]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from policy support for domestic demand and long-term export resilience, with a notable performance in 2024 driven by low valuations, high dividends, and stable earnings from leading white goods companies [2][3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic demand, particularly from the "trade-in" policy, which has shown a marked improvement in retail sales growth for home appliances [2][3]. - The export market is also projected to maintain high growth, with a year-on-year increase in export value of 14.5% and export volume up by 22.2% in 2024 [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Strong Fundamentals and Style-Driven Market - The home appliance sector has outperformed the market, with the Shenyin Wanguo home appliance index rising by 25.0% from January to October 2024, significantly surpassing the 11.6% increase of the CSI 300 index [15][18]. - The sector is characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields, making it an attractive investment option [23][26]. 2. Policy Support for Domestic Demand - The "trade-in" policy is expected to drive domestic demand, with retail sales of home appliances showing significant growth in September and October 2024, with year-on-year increases of 20.5% and 39.2% respectively [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government subsidies and favorable real estate policies in boosting consumer confidence and demand for home appliances [38][39]. 3. Export Growth Potential - The report notes that the home appliance export market has shown resilience, with a strong performance in emerging markets and a recovery in demand from developed markets [2][3]. - The export value of home appliances is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by low base effects and channel replenishment [2][3]. 4. White Goods Sector - The white goods segment is highlighted as a key area of focus, with expectations of significant recovery in domestic demand driven by government subsidies and improved market conditions [2][3]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the white goods sector, such as Midea and Gree, are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [2][3]. 5. Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector is anticipated to see a gradual improvement in market conditions, with expectations of valuation recovery and performance stabilization [2][3]. - The report indicates that the kitchen appliance segment is likely to benefit from favorable real estate policies and consumer demand recovery [39]. 6. Small Appliances - The small appliance market is projected to recover from a low base, with domestic demand expected to improve as competition eases [2][3]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the small appliance sector, particularly in the context of ongoing government support and market stabilization [2][3]. 7. Vacuum Cleaners - The vacuum cleaner segment is noted for its resilience, with expectations of significant growth in domestic sales driven by the "trade-in" policy and increasing consumer interest [2][3]. - The report suggests that leading brands in this category are likely to maintain a stable market position amid ongoing demand growth [2][3]. 8. Color TVs - The color TV market is expected to experience a boost from government subsidies and increased penetration in overseas markets, marking a turning point for the industry [2][3]. - The report anticipates stable demand in the global color TV market, supported by favorable pricing dynamics and improved supply chain conditions [2][3].