光伏行业2025年年度投资策略：新技术降本增效永不止步,行业自律推动反转可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the photovoltaic industry, with specific recommendations for key companies such as Longi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., and JA Solar [3][4][5][6][7]. Core Insights - Continuous breakthroughs in monocrystalline battery technology are driving cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with new technologies like BC and HJT expected to complement each other and enhance existing TOPCon capacity [8]. - Industry self-discipline is anticipated to end vicious competition, with a potential bottom reversal. The global photovoltaic installation demand is projected to grow at a long-term rate of 10-15% [8]. - High-premium market supply chains are becoming stringent, with overseas capacity expansion aligning with trends, particularly in the U.S. market [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Breakthroughs in Monocrystalline Battery Technology - The core logic of the photovoltaic industry is cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, with a well-established iterative technology route. The current mainstream technology is TOPCon, while BC and HJT are in early mass production stages [32][34]. 2. Industry Self-Discipline and Market Dynamics - Emerging markets are expected to drive global photovoltaic demand growth, with a forecast of 489GW new installations in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 39% [63][64]. 3. Supply Chain and Capacity Trends - The U.S. market's high barriers lead to significant premiums, making overseas production profitable despite higher costs. The report highlights the challenges faced by Southeast Asian suppliers due to anti-dumping tariffs [8]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on advancements in BC and HJT technologies, recommending companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. It also emphasizes the importance of leading manufacturers in the existing technology routes [8].