煤炭与消费用燃料行业周报：动力煤价跌破800元/吨会影响煤炭股红利配置价值吗？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [8]. Core Viewpoints - The recent drop in thermal coal prices below 800 RMB/ton is viewed as a short-term phenomenon driven by supply-demand imbalances. Despite this, the report anticipates that coal prices will likely remain above 800 RMB/ton for the year, minimizing the impact on the performance of high-dividend coal companies [2][6]. - The report suggests that investors should continue to focus on high-dividend coal stocks such as China Shenhua (A+H), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy (A+H) as potential investment opportunities amidst price fluctuations [2][6]. Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 1.09%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.08 percentage points. The thermal coal index decreased by 0.98%, while the coking coal index fell by 0.77% [16][19]. - As of December 13, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 790 RMB/ton, a decrease of 22 RMB/ton from the previous week [44]. Supply and Demand Situation - On December 12, the coal supply in 25 provinces was 6.474 million tons, an increase of 10.1% from December 5. The coal consumption was 6.534 million tons, up 10.8% [35]. - The report highlights that the current high port inventories and increased shipping pressures may lead traders to lower prices to enhance turnover rates [16][37]. Company Highlights - China Shenhua reported a commodity coal production of 299 million tons from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [61]. - The report notes that the recent increase in coal production costs due to rising labor costs and stricter safety and environmental regulations is expected to support a higher price floor for coal [5][6].