房地产行业周度观点更新：超常规政策基调意味着更多的可能性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [9]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is currently seeking a new equilibrium, with a more proactive policy goal of "stabilizing and recovering" the market. The policies have broken conventional frameworks, showing initial signs of stabilization in both volume and price. Although a trend reversal will take time, the most challenging phase is passing [5][6]. - The report emphasizes that the actual interest rate is a crucial observation indicator for housing price recovery, referencing historical low points in 2009 and 2016. A potential nominal mortgage rate of over 2% could be achievable if inflation improves, leading to structural stabilization [7][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 1.95% this week, with an excess return of -0.94% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 13.29%, with a cumulative excess return of -1.34%, ranking 16th out of 32 [5][13]. Policy Insights - The central government has set the tone for "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" and aims to stabilize the real estate and stock markets. Policies will focus on preventing systemic risks and promoting market recovery through active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [6][7]. Sales Data - Recent data shows a marginal decline in new and second-hand housing transaction volumes year-on-year. New housing transaction area in 37 cities increased by 28.2% year-on-year, while second-hand housing in 19 cities rose by 65.4% [7][6].