东海证券：晨会纪要-20241216

Group 1 - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand in the face of external uncertainties, with a GDP growth target set around 5% [12][13][25] - Monetary policy is expected to be "appropriately loose," with indications of potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, reflecting a shift towards a more accommodative stance [14][15] - Fiscal policy will be more proactive, with an anticipated increase in the deficit ratio to around 4% and the issuance of special bonds expected to rise to approximately 4.7 trillion yuan [15][16] Group 2 - The non-bank financial sector is projected to experience significant changes driven by regulatory reforms and a focus on high-quality development, with the securities index rising by 35% and the insurance index by 36% as of November [21][22] - Key trends in the securities sector include deepening investment reforms, cautious equity financing, and accelerated mergers and acquisitions, while the insurance sector is expected to benefit from lower liability costs and a robust growth in new business value [22] - The report highlights the importance of addressing risks in the real estate sector, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting sales through measures such as inventory reduction and easing purchase restrictions [17][31] Group 3 - The report indicates that the consumer goods replacement policy has driven sales exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from the automotive and home appliance sectors [32] - Financial data for November shows a year-on-year decrease in M2 growth to 7.1% and a narrowing decline in M1 to -3.7%, indicating a mixed outlook for liquidity and credit conditions [33] - The A-share market has shown volatility, with major indices experiencing declines, highlighting the need for cautious investment strategies amid fluctuating market conditions [36][38]