轮胎行业月报：原材料价格回落，供需相对平稳

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [92]. Core Insights - The cost side shows a gradual decline in raw material prices and stable shipping costs, which is expected to support the industry's profitability [38][87]. - Production of semi-steel tires remains stable, while full-steel tire production shows signs of recovery, indicating a positive trend in manufacturing capacity [23][28]. - Domestic demand is stable, but overseas demand is slowing down, suggesting a mixed outlook for market growth [41][72]. Cost Side Summary - Raw material prices have decreased, with November 2024 average prices for key materials as follows: - Butadiene: 9978.57 CNY/ton, down 21.00% month-on-month, up 8.79% year-on-year - Natural rubber: 2005.48 USD/ton, down 2.42% month-on-month, up 35.30% year-on-year - Styrene-butadiene rubber: 15135.71 CNY/ton, down 8.40% month-on-month, up 26.85% year-on-year - Carbon black: 7683.33 CNY/ton, down 2.84% month-on-month, down 14.94% year-on-year - Nylon cord fabric: 21562.50 CNY/ton, down 0.86% month-on-month, down 1.99% year-on-year [5][6]. Production Side Summary - In October 2024, China's rubber tire production reached 94.51 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.37%, with semi-steel tire production at 56.74 million units, up 3.22% year-on-year [26]. - The average operating rate for semi-steel tires in November 2024 was 79.17%, up 2.70% month-on-month, while full-steel tires had an operating rate of 60.51%, up 6.66% month-on-month [28]. Demand Side Summary - Domestic market demand remains stable, with a focus on replenishing inventory, while overseas demand is affected by tariff policies and a cautious outlook from downstream customers [41][86]. - In October 2024, China's exports of new inflatable rubber tires reached 56.36 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.47% [34]. Industry News Summary - Key developments include Goodyear's major transformation plan, Sumitomo Rubber's closure of its only U.S. factory, and Zhongce Rubber's production of its first truck tire in Indonesia [76][79]. - The report highlights the ongoing expansion of production capacity by companies like Cheng Shin Rubber in India and Guizhou Tire's new smart manufacturing project [82][81].